More Speculation!

By Darrin Stobaugh

More Speculation!

Well if you haven’t figured it out yet, the Treasuries seem to react more on speculation than the actual facts.  Today, Treasuries advanced on speculation of what Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke might have on his speech scheduled for Friday August 31^st in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.  The hope is that he will use this opportunity to further the support for additional actions by the Central Bank to support and push the economy forward.  The bright side of this possible action is that we can possibly see lending relaxed a bit and rates to stay low while jobs are being created.  A possible win/win.  For more of the spectator view, check out:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-27/treasuries-advance-before-bernanke-speaks-at-jackson-hole.html

Crude weathering the Storm?

Here at the Guardian Watch, we are not in the business of reporting on the weather, but it appears the weather in the Gulf of Mexico will be a topic, as the oil rigs in the Gulf are battening down their platforms bracing for the now categorized Tropical Storm Isaac, which is expected to turn into Hurricane status within the next 24 hours.  Due to this action, production of crude oil will slow down or cease temporarily, raising the cost of barrels of crude oil, and adding to the Chevron refinery fire in Richmond, California is going to drive the gasoline prices higher.  This additional cost will reduce the purchases in other sectors of the economy.  What is the bright side?  This Tropical Storm is estimated to not reach higher than a Category 2 Hurricane, so the possible destruction and interference with oil pumping should be very temporary.  In addition, a personal note from the Guardian Watch to the Gulf Coast states, please be safe and listen to your local officials to ensure your continued safety.

Shakespeare Muse under a Parking Lot?

Scratching your head, me too.  Apparently a team of archeologists from University of Leicester began to scan a parking lot in the town of Leicester’s city council for the remains of King Richard III.  Yes, King Richard III, who was killed in battle in 1485 in the War of the Roses, and buried in the Franciscan Friary known as the Greyfriars, whose church apparently stood on that ground.  The puzzling issue for the Guardian is who tore down the church and did not move the body to a more Royal burial site?  For more on this unfolding drama, act like an Archeologist and dig your mouse here:  http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/25/richard-iii-may-be-buried-under-parking-lot_n_1830045.html?utm_hp_ref=weird-news

Today’s rates should be tarred over and buried as they are trending up!

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What is good is bad!

By Darrin Stobaugh

What is good is bad!

So it appears the 10-year Notes have experienced a rally not seen since April.  What is fueling this?  The jump in jobless benefits and now a change in view that the Federal Reserve may increase the monetary stimuli.  When parts of the economy are in need of help, it improves the Bonds.  I know this is Bond Market 101, but it just seems crazy sometimes day to day.  So let’s look at the bright side.  Additional stimulus to the monetary policy is good, as that should keep rates low for not only home lending, but business lending as well.  This helps improve the economy but degrades the Bonds.  For more of the Good News Bad News Bears, check out: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-23/treasury-yields-near-one-week-lows-as-u-s-jobless-claims-rise.html

Federal Contradiction?

It appears that one Federal Reserve Chief is trying to dampen the thought of the Federal Reserve adding more stimuli to the monetary policy.  St. Louis President, James Bullard, was said to have been “sent on a mission of clarity”, analysts said.  In his opinion, the FOMC release was “a bit stale”, and stated he was opposed to further easing of the monetary policies.  The bright side of this is that he is only one of the Presidents of the Federal Reserve, and that there are still others that do back the possibility, although since the release of the minutes yesterday from the quarterly meeting, they have not come out and said as much.  For more Federal contemplation, click: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-retreat-as-stimulus-debated-2012-08-23?link=MW_story_popular

Is Reality Catching up With Fantasy?

It appears it has.  The Star Wars hover bike has been developed!!  No more bumpy bides or terrain you cannot bike across!  This hover bike, developed by Aerofex, have designed and built the Star Wars-like bike and while it has its limitations, like not going 90 mph or turning on a dime around trees, it still is quite a bike!  For more out of this world creation, hover your mouse over: http://thefw.com/real-life-star-wars-speeder-bikes-may-be-on-the-way/

Today’s rates are starting their decline, hovering down by a couple jumps!

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A Greek Tragedy?

By Darrin Stobaugh

A Greek Tragedy?

Maybe not.  Treasuries fell today after a 3 day run due to the possibility that a proposal on how to ease Greece’s bailout program will limit the debt crisis in Europe and that further US stimulus will not materialize.  While this is only the beginning stages, any single factor could change the outlook and actions of both Europe and the US, so by no means is this a for sure thing, but it does affect the daily fluctuation of the Treasury yields.  The bright side of this is that the US Home sales report is expected to show that home sales rose in July, which shows growth and added confidence in the US economy.  For more yielding action, check out:  http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-21/u-s-10-year-rate-nears-2-month-high-on-central-bank-speculation.html

A Golden Tale!

Gold rose today by 1.2% based on the news out of China that it would be easing their monetary policy and planning new stimulus actions during the last half of 2012.  Gold moved to its highest level since May.  What is the bright side of this move?  Dollar-centric commodities usually rise on a weaker dollar, which is what happens when Gold rises, because these commodities get less expensive to buy for investors that hold in other currencies.  For more golden news click: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/gold-futures-rise-on-stimulus-hints-weak-dollar-2012-08-21?link=MW_Nav_NV

UFO’s prefer Mars to earth?

Well not quite, if you count the amount of UFO sightings on Earth, but a picture from the Mars Rover has peaked some UFO watchers curiosity.  The Curiosity Rover has sent back some very interesting pictures since it’s landing on Mars, but most of what is seen is open to speculation as to what it is.  One gentleman, Marc Dantonio a video analyst says that after running filters, that these anomalies are only one pixel sized and are just an abnormality of the pixel, not an actual object.  For more roving news, land you mouse on: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/21/ufos-on-mars-curiosity-rover_n_1813726.html

Today’s rates are not out of this world, but they have been trending up by jumps over last week!

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Funnies for Friday!

By Darrin Stobaugh

Funnies for Friday!

A man lay sprawled across three entire seats in the posh theatre. When the usher came by and noticed this, he whispered to the man, “Sorry, sir, but you’re only allowed one seat.” The man groaned but didn’t budge. The usher became impatient. “Sir, if you don’t get up from there I’m going to have to call the manager.” Again, the man just groaned, which infuriated the usher who turned and marched briskly back up the aisle in search of his manager.

In a few moments, both the usher and the manager returned and stood over the man. Together the two of them tried repeatedly to move him, but with no success. Finally, they summoned the police. The cop surveyed the situation briefly then asked, “All right buddy, what’s your name?” “Sam,” the man moaned. “Where ya from, Sam?” With pain in his voice Sam replied “The balcony.”

http://www.lotsofjokes.com/classic_jokes_4.asp

Two guys rob a store, they burst out the door running as they hear the sirens of cop cars coming closer. The two dive into two separate bushes hoping they won’t get caught. Soon the cop cars stop near the bushes and the two robbers hearing foot steps grow more nervous. A cop then grabs one of the guys out the bush laughing “Busted”. As he drags the robber off he looks back shaking his head in shame… “Come on John!!!!!!!!” he screams “They got US!”

http://www.lotsofjokes.com/classic_jokes_4.asp

A lady dropped her handbag in the bustle of holiday shopping. An honest, little boy noticed her drop the handbag, so he picked it up and returned it to her. The lady looked into her handbag and commented, “Hmm… That’s funny. When I lost my bag there was a $20 bill in it. Now there are twenty $1 bills.” The boy quickly replied, “That’s right, lady. The last time I found a purse, the owner didn’t have any change for a reward.”

http://www.lotsofjokes.com/classic_jokes_4.asp

Today’s rates continue to be a joke; they are still trending up by a tick or two!

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Treasury Yields High!

By Darrin Stobaugh

Treasury Yields High!

The 10-year yields have fluctuated up to a three month high.  The 30-year bonds did not have as much motion or highs, even though the Federal Reserve purchased $1.9 billion in Treasuries as part of their continued programs to strengthen the US Economy.  The bright side is that, these yields represent a feeling that the Feds will not add to their monetary stimulus program, which would seem that even in the face of current housing start data and unemployment numbers that investors feel that the US Economy is on the upswing.  For more yielding news, check out:   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-16/treasury-yields-rise-to-three-month-high-before-housing-report.html

Summer Dull Drums?

Not per speculation on Wall Street, who is seeing low trading volume and expect to see it at these levels for a few more weeks.  It appears investors are holding back and not making big changes or switching their investing structures until at least two upcoming events that could require a change in direction for investors.  One is the Federal Reserve which has stated that rates will remain low for now, but that changes are coming, and the second is the European Central Bank’s stance that it will do whatever it takes to preserve the euro.  What is the bright side of this?  The lull allows for market introspection and with lower volumes and smaller moves, it is easier to get a grasp again on the landscape.  Think of letting the dust settle if you will.  For more of the dull drums, click:  http://www.marketwatch.com/story/trading-volume-drop-cant-just-be-blamed-on-summer-2012-08-16

Pedicure anyone?

So a good business person would take this opportunity to get “resources” on the cheap!  Apparently there is a floating “island” of Pumice Stones floating off the coast of New Zealand.  The “island” measures 300 miles long and 30 miles wide!  It is made up of air and light volcanic rock produced by underwater volcanoes.  They say it poses no threat to ships, but Godzilla’s bunions better look out!  For more exfoliating coverage, scrub your mouse over: http://weather.aol.com/2012/08/13/huge-pumice-island-spotted-in-pacific/#page=1

Today’s rates could use a little pumicing as they are still trending up!

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The Fed does a First!

By Darrin Stobaugh

The Fed does a First!

In another move of the Federal Reserve’s Operation Twist, the Fed has pursued purchasing the most actively traded 10-year notes in July, a first for the Fed.  They purchased over $4 Billion over 3 weeks, beginning July 18^th.  The bright side of this is that this is the continued effort of the Federal Reserve to swap short-term debt for longer-term debt, and the only debt available for sale are the recently traded due to lower yields.  This is part of their efforts to help the struggling economy.  For more of the Holding Policies, check out: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-15/fed-steps-up-newly-issued-debt-buys-as-stimulus-soaks-up-supply.html

Will the Fed continue?

With the recent economic data received within the two weeks after the Federal Reserve’s policy meeting, it brings into question whether the Fed will continue to purchase large amounts of bonds in the near future.  A process called Quantitative Easing (QE), which is what the Fed is doing by buying the longer term bonds is, in some analysts view, may not continue again until the end of the year.  What is the bright side? It means that the economy is showing positive signs of improvement and needing fewer stimuli from the Federal Reserve. For more of the views of when QE will resume click: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/better-data-raises-doubts-of-quick-fed-easing-move-2012-08-15

Can Mothra be far behind?!

A sample of butterflies that were exposed to the Fukushima Nuclear Disaster have been found to be mutated.  Different size eyes, stunted growth and irregular wings.  I don’t know about you, but I remember Godzilla being born of radioactivity and so was Mothra!  You heard it here first if it happens.  For more radioactive bug news, flutter over to: http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/08/14/fukushima-mutant-butterflies_n_1777180.html

Today’s rates are a monster too; they are trending up by leaps and bounds!!

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Back to school shopping boosting economy?

By Darrin Stobaugh

Back to school shopping boosting economy?

In a simple one word answer, no!  July Retail Sales gained more than what was expected in July which drove down Treasuries, which reflects investors are not seeking the safety of US Debt as much as in prior months.  So you would think that if it’s Retail Sales, and we are approaching a new school year, that it would be a boost from those sales, like the holidays do for the Retail Sales figures, but you would be incorrect.  The report shows that purchases of other retail items such as furniture and electronics helped drive those figures up.  So what is the bright side of this?  Increases in purchases of non-traditional retail items during a time of year when traditional retail items are purchased, such as back to school clothes and supplies helps increase manufacturing production which in turn helps people back to work in a simplistic explanation.  For more on the rise of retail, check out: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-14/treasuries-extend-losses-after-july-retail-sales-exceed-forecast.html

Positive news in Europe?!

Seems the US Retail data has also helped European Stocks increase!  The European stocks achieved a huge increase when they closed Tuesday, an increase not seen five months!  Apparently also fueling the increase was the German growth that exceeded expectations.  Germany being the financial anchor in the Euro-zone is one of the indicators of the Euro-zone being able to survive the debt turmoil it has been experiencing.  Although the growth data still appeared unstable, it was better than had been expected fueling some optimism.  The bright side is if this continues, then the impact of the European Debt Crisis could be minimized and not have as much effect on the world economy.  For more Stoxx, click on: http://stream.marketwatch.com/story/markets/SS-4-4/SS-4-9075/

Dallas Cowboys 3, Oakland Raiders 0!

Enough said!

Today’s rates got a beating too, they are trending up a good jump!

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Morgan Stanley and FedEx selling debt!?

By Darrin Stobaugh

Morgan Stanley and FedEx selling debt!?

Yes, after a decade, the sales of longer-term bonds from Morgan Stanley and FedEx are being pushed at a phenomenal rate.  Issuing investment grade bonds that mature in 30 years or more totaling $83.6 billion from December 2011 until now, which is an amount that has surpassed the totals of 20101 and 2011.  What is the bright side of this news?  Corporate Treasurers are feeling comfortable enough about the extension of lower borrowing costs that they are exploiting those extremely low rates so when the target rate is between 0% and .25%, and the average yield on security grade investments is 4.57%, this creates more money for companies to grow and strengthen the economy.  For more on this fast paced selling, check out:   http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-08-13/morgan-stanley-leading-long-bond-sales-to-record-credit-markets.html

 Japan slows and Calendar empty!

After a five week run on gains, US Stocks fell back today as news of Japan’s economy is slowing more dramatically than anticipated and the fact that there is nothing on the economic calendar today to push stocks higher.  Only a tenth of the companies listed on the Dow Jones are trading up this morning.  This is also the 30^th anniversary of the beginning of the greatest secular bull market in history.  The bright side is that investors are cashing in some of their gains, which in-turn puts more money into other areas of the market or the economy depending on the investors wants and needs.  For more on the anniversary, click here: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-fall-after-five-weeks-of-gains-2012-08-13

Dallas or Oakland?

Yes, pre-season football is upon us and two members of the Guardian family are Dallas Cowboy Fans and at least one member is an Oakland Raiders fan.  So as you can tell, there will be a high level of banter between these groups about the outcome of today’s pre-season game between the two teams.  And because in a rarity, the game is a sellout, so the “blackout” is lifted!  No matter who you root for, let’s all enjoy this football season and may the best teams win!!!!  For more on tonight’s game, pass your mouse over to: http://www.nfl.com/gamecenter/2012081351/2012/PRE1/cowboys@raiders#menu=gameinfo&tab=preview

Today’s rates fumbled, so they lost a little ground!

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Still Safe in the US!

By Darrin Stobaugh

Still Safe in the US!

As Treasuries climb and yields slide to record lows due to continued speculation that Greece’s failure to achieve their bailout targets and worsen the European debt crisis, has made US Treasuries the safest place for investor’s money.  On the bright side, money from around the world is coming to the US, which helps bolster the US economy.  For more safe news, check out: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-07-23/treasury-10-year-yield-touches-record.html

Oil slips on Europe!

Crude oil has declined dramatically today as the European debt crisis continues to weigh on the speculation of demand for crude oil.  On the bright side, the less oil costs, usually the cost of gas declines, which allows Americans to have more spendable cash for housing or consumer goods, which both boost our economy.  For more slick news on oil, click: http://www.marketwatch.com/story/oil-extends-loss-as-stocks-sell-off-2012-07-23

Our prayers!

Usually we post news of the Weird here, but we find it more poignant to take this space to take a moment to send our prayers and good thoughts to the victims and their families of the Denver, Colorado shooting.  So please join us in a moment of silence………….

Thank you!

Today’s rates are slick as oil and sliding down by a few ticks!

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Funnies for Friday – Friday the 13th!

By Darrin Stobaugh

Funnies for Friday – Friday the 13^th!

So, here we go with the Friday the 13th list!

-Hotels and skyscrapers have no 13th floor (well, there’s the 14th floor…You know what floor that is.)

-Airplanes have no 13th aisle

-Friday was execution day in most of ancient Europe.

-Jesus died on a Friday, and was betrayed by his 13th disciple

-A remedy for Friday the 13’s bad luck is to stand on top of a skyscraper and burn all of your socks with holes in them

-Another remedy is to stand on your head and eat some gristle

-The Latin term for the irrational fear of this day is paraskevidekatriaphobia

-there have been 3 Friday the 13s arriving throughout 2009

-hospitals have no room 13

-some people are so afraid of this day that they refuse to leave their bed

-A group in France was made for the sole purpose of filling in parties with only 13 guests with last minute guests so they didn’t have only 13 people in their party

-Franklin D. Roosevelt never traveled on the 13th day of any month.

-Jason voorhees is a name with 13 characters in it.

Read more: Friday the 13th Superstitions | Cracked.com http://www.cracked.com/funny-3035-friday-13th-superstitions/#ixzz20WXER682

President Franklin D. Roosevelt would never host 13 guests at a meal. Napoleon and President Herbert Hoover were also triskaidekaphobia, with an abnormal fear of the number 13.

Mark Twain once was the 13th guest at a dinner party. A friend warned him not to go. “It was bad luck,” Twain later told the friend. “They only had food for 12.” Superstitious diners in Paris can hire a quatorzieme, or professional 14th guest.

This fear of Friday the 13th can be serious business, according to the Stress Management Center and Phobia Institute in Asheville, N.C., which, among other things, offers therapy to help people overcome their fear of the freaky Friday. Their estimates suggest hundreds of millions of dollars, up to $900 million are lost due to people’s fear of flying or doing the business as usual that day, though that number isn’t backed up with other estimates

Fittingly, director of psychological thrillers Alfred Hitchcock was born on the 13th — Friday, Aug. 13, 1999, would have been his 100th birthday. Perhaps aptly titled “Number 13,” a film that was supposed to be Hitchcock’s directorial debut never made it past the first few scenes and was shut down due to financial problems. He allegedly said the film wasn’t very interesting. (Meanwhile, Fidel Castro was born on Friday the 13th, in August 1926.)

Today’s rates are a victim of Friday the 13^th; they are trending up a tick!

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